Threshold or race pace: neither proven better
Medium confidence
Most recreational marathoners race at roughly 85% of their critical speed, so marathon-pace runs and threshold runs are different workouts for them. Elite marathoners race above threshold. No study has measured whether one kind of work produces faster races than the other.
What it means in practice
Credit either threshold work or race-pace work for recreational runners, and do not penalize a plan for choosing one over the other. Do not claim that race-pace work builds pacing skill or that threshold work raises a ceiling, because neither has been tested here. The rubric's line near a 3:00 marathon, where race pace approaches threshold, is coaching practice, not a research finding.
The evidence
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Using raw training and race data from more than 25,000 recreational marathon runners, the authors showed that critical speed (the fastest pace a runner can hold in a physiological steady state) can be estimated straight from everyday GPS data. The best model, built from 400 m, 800 m, and 5,000 m efforts, predicted marathon finish time with about 7.67% error. Runners raced the marathon at roughly 84.8% of critical speed on average, with faster runners holding about 93% and slower runners about 78.9%. Runners averaged about 87.6% of critical speed early in the race, and those who ran the first half above about 94% of critical speed (particularly faster than it) were more likely to slow by more than 25% in the second half.
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In 16 world-class male distance runners, VO2peak was 71.0 ± 5.7 mL/kg/min, lactate threshold sat at 18.9 ± 0.4 km/h (83% VO2peak) and the lactate turnpoint at 20.2 ± 0.6 km/h (92% VO2peak). Two-hour marathon pace (21.1 km/h) is above the turnpoint, so for these athletes marathon pace is not sub-threshold. In the 7 athletes who reached a steady state at 21.1 km/h, it cost 191 ± 19 mL/kg/km, about 4.0 L/min or 94% of VO2peak. The sample is small (n=16) and elite-only, which bounds how far these numbers generalize.
n=16
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Vickers and Vertosick (2016) matched recreational runners' training habits against their race velocity across the 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon. Weekly mileage tracked with velocity about equally at every distance, so volume was no more decisive for the marathon than for the shorter races. Tempo runs correlated more strongly with velocity at 5K and 10K than at longer distances, which inverts the usual "tempo is for marathons" framing. Interval training showed similar associations across all distances. The data are observational and self-reported. The authors argue a causal reading is justified, but the design cannot rule out confounding, and the tempo result runs against the common practice of reserving tempo work mainly for marathon plans.
n=2303
Why we call confidence medium
No study has compared threshold training with race-pace training in recreational runners. The premises are descriptive: in training and race data from more than 25,000 recreational marathoners, runners raced at about 85% of critical speed on average and about 79% for slower runners (Smyth 2020), while world-class men run 2-hour marathon pace above their lactate turnpoint (Jones 2021, n=16). So for most recreational marathoners, race pace and threshold pace are different intensities. In a survey of 2,303 recreational runners, tempo running tracked with race speed more at 5K and 10K than at longer distances (Vickers 2016, correlational). Medium reflects a statement of what is and is not known.
Where it applies
Recreational runners training for 5K to marathon. Premise data come from recreational marathoners (Smyth 2020), world-class male marathoners (Jones 2021) and a survey of recreational runners (Vickers 2016).
Does not apply to: events shorter than 1500m where race pace is well above all thresholds and the question reframes around speed/anaerobic capacity.
Plans that respect this
Plans that scored well on the rubric measures informed by this claim.
- 10-Week Advanced 10k Training (5 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster 10k (3 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster 10k (4 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster 10k (5 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster 10k (6 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster Half Marathon (3 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster Half Marathon (4 days)
- 10-Week Run a Faster Half Marathon (5 days)
- 10-Week Run Your First 10k (3 days)
- 10-Week Run Your First 10k (4 days)
- 10-Week Run Your First Half Marathon (3 days)
- 10-Week Run Your First Half Marathon (4 days)
Last reviewed Oct 14, 2026. See how we score.